AIM: Strategic Importance of Bosnian-Herzegovinian Croats

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Subject: AIM: Strategic Importance of Bosnian-Herzegovinian Croats

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AIM: Strategic Importance of Bosnian-Herzegovinian Croats


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*** STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE BOSNIAN-HERZEGOVINIAN CROATS
 
** A THIRD ENTITY, TUDJMAN'S DREAM OR...
 
AIM SARAJEVO, October 28, 1999
 

The political circles in B&H and international community reacted
quickly and unfavourably to the recent
speech of the Croatian President Franjo Tudjman in Gracac, Lika and
particularly to his statement given some two days later to the local
and foreign members of the press that the Dayton Peace Agreement had
to be revised and that a third, Croatian entity should be established
in B&H. There is a considerable collection of such reactions, but
despite all that, as soon as emotions and reactions cool down a
perfectly logical question will be raised on the appropriateness and
importance of such Tudjman's statements and reactions they provoke.


Namely, according to those familiar with Tudjman's policy towards
Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as with the
basic contents of the majority of comments about these statements, it
can be concluded that there was no reason for any, let alone such,
surprise at Tudjman's statements since, basically, what he said was
nothing new, nothing that he had not already said, but rather
something that he constantly wanted and tried to achieve through his
political followers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The "strategic
importance" of Bosnian-Herzegovinian Croats for the fate of his global
policy vis-a-vis B&H was never a question. Tudjman never tried to
either hide or deny it and that always had a decisive influence on the
relations between the two states, even after the signing of the Dayton
Peace Accords, especially on the relations between the federal
partners - Bosniacs and Croats, i.e. two national parties: the SDA and
the HDZ.


Tudjman's dream about a "third entity" was not always just a dream. It
is enough to remember not so recent
past when the Croatian "Herzeg Bosnia" was still in existence and
perfectly functioned with all the elements of a true state order
although it was always a typical para-statal formation. However, no
matter how legal and
legitimate, the non-existent or totally helpless "real" state of
Bosnia and Herzegovina was  never able to oppose it efficiently until
its abolishment in Dayton by the will and order of the international
community and with the establishment of the B&H Federation.

And even after Dayton, the B&H Federation had "functioned" for a long
time on the basis of the actually existing "entity" aspirations of
Bosniacs and Croats. That is why some strong elements of Herzeg-Bosnia
as an entity are still alive or have left such deep traces in
individual parts that they represent a serious obstacle to the
definite establishment of a stable Federation of Bosnia and
Herzegovina. Therefore, turning a blind eye to the fact that without
Tudjman, and even more so with him, the advocates of the "third
entity" are still very present and strong in B&H and that Tudjman had
said nothing new or surprising would be an act of political blindness
and, moreover, totally irresponsible. He only tried once more what he
had always wanted and tried even before.


If he is right when he claims that "there can be no Bosnia without
Croats", the second part of Tudjman's statement is totally out of any
reasonable and acceptable context. He does not recognize the B&H
Federation as a framework of equitable life and work of Croats in B&H,
but once more advocates territorial division of B&H and ethnic
homogenization of the Croatian people within it, with the ultimate aim
of annexing it to Croatia. If, according to him, the "survival of
Croats in B&H is strategically important for the strategic interests
of the Croatian state in view of the form of the Croatian border", on
account of which he is advocating the establishment of a third
(Croatian) entity in B&H, then it is quite certain that he has
overlooked and even denied the "strategic interest" of Croats in B&H
and that they should be the ones to say what they really want when
their interests and fate are in question.

As I have said, the reactions to this Tudjman's statement were
numerous and mostly quite negative. They reveal rather unusual facts -
e.g. even Biljana Plavsic said that "such ideas and irresponsible
statements can further deteriorate the already precarious situation in
B&H, especially regarding the relations between the Bosniac and
Croatian side within the B&H Federation". Is she said so, it doesn't
have to mean that that was what she had in mind, and especially that
her motives for such a reaction were identical to those of the SDA or
SDP B&H or some other parties within the B&H Federation and even in
the Republic of Srpska. But, observed from that angle, it could be
said that Tudjman's statement almost had a mobilizing effect so that
even incompatible elements which are, as a rule, mutually
irreconcilably opposed, have joined forces against him.

In other words, it is not surprising that Tudjman's statement met with
strong opposition of local political
factors. Perhaps some were truly disturbed (again) and even irritated
by this statement. But, the United States and representatives of the
international community soon brought down the political ball and
cooled the hotheads with their statement that the revision of Dayton,
as well as "third entity" are out of the question. Several days later,
Tudjman's "third entity" balloon went down like a lead. Still, the
reasons and true consequences of his statement have yet to be analysed
soberly.

If we leave aside for a moment the hypocritical character of his
aspirations towards territorial division and ethnic homogenization of
B&H, which is essentially a drastic denial of and opposition to the
Dayton Peace
Accords, it can only be concluded that right (were) are those analysts
who have interpreted Tudjman's statement just as his pre-electoral
propaganda wisecrack actually aimed at homogenizing his electorate,
but this time in a situation which, according to all relevant
political analysts, is heralding the defeat of Tudjman's politics and
his overpowering HDZ at the coming elections in Croatia.

In other words, this time the revival of the Croatian Republic of
"Herzeg Bosnia" in a form of a third, Croatian entity in B&H was, most
probably, intended more for local Croatian pre-election purposes and
less for "strategic interests" of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In
that sense, one should take seriously the statement of the former
longtime US Ambassador to Croatia, Peter Galbraight, that "we are
living at the times of the downfall of Tudjman's rule". His comment
that "Tudjman's politics has brought the greatest harm to the Bosnian
Croats. Tudjman's politics is threatening to eradicate the Croats -
Catholics from B&H where they have lived for centuries" is worth
mentioning.

>From this point of view, it is less important what Tudjman and his
extremist "Croatian" followers in B&H think and want. Since the fate
of B&H and their own within that B&H is truly in question, the most
important thing is what the Bosnian Croats want and think. It is clear
from the reactions to Tudjman's statement on the "third entity" that
it was not received with much enthusiasm even by the HDZ B&H
leadership. Its leaders merely pointed out that the "establishment of
the third entity is not something that should be proclaimed for a
dogma" adding that "the HDZ B&H resolutely rejects any stands that do
not allow a democratic discussion and democratic solutions in that
context". But, it has been clear for some time that the HDZ B&H is no
longer such hard core advocate of Tudjman's policy in B&H, although
its extreme wing is still strong. No less important is the fact that
HDZ B&H is no longer a sacrosanct "leader" of the Croatian people in
B&H.

Apart from its Bosniac Franciscans (the centuries long honourable
guardians of Bosnia), the Croatian people in
B&H now have more realistic, more tolerant, pro-Bosniac oriented
political and national groups and political leaders - the New Croatian
Initiative, the Croatian National Alliance (which consists of the
Croatian Peasants' Party and the Croatian National Community) and
others. It is crucially important for them to have predominant
influence on the Croatian population in B&H so that the life in
Bosnia, together with other nations, would definitely become their
"strategic interest" and B&H their true and only homeland. There is no
doubt that such awareness will develop according to the manner and
pace of the disintegration of Tudjman's policy and regime in Croatia.
But, the Croats in B&H must be aware that their destiny within B&H
does not depend on Tudjman and that they are the masters of their own
destiny.

That is why Tudjman's latest statement should not under any
circumstances be underestimated, at least as a warning that forces
wishing to divide B&H are still strong. But, it should not be
overestimated either. Probably right are those who, having in mind
Peter Galbraight's claim, think that this was yet another pre-election
political "firecracker" intended to homogenize the local (in Croatia)
electoral clients, but also an attempt at restoring the lost rating of
Tudjman's "Bosnian policy" among the Croats in B&H. However, the
Croats in B&H will be the ones to decide what will be their "strategic
interest" in Bosnia and Herzegovina in both near and distant future.
Depending on its stand vis-a-vis the latest Tudjman's "entity" and
other political ideas, HDZ B&H will be put to the hardest trial.
Luckily, apart from HDZ B&H, the Croats in B&H already have much wider
choice of political orientations so that it would be logical for the
HDZ B&H to see its destiny more in B&H than in Croatia.

#Slavko SANTIC

(AIM, Sarajevo)

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