MINELREL-L Archive (08121999-22:21:07-26727)

Fwd: Azerbaijan may Compromise Over Karabakh


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Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 22:21:06 +0300 (EET DST)
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Subject: Fwd: Azerbaijan may Compromise Over Karabakh


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Fwd: Azerbaijan may Compromise Over Karabakh

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Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 11:20:54 -0700
From: BKONS <[email protected]>
 
Daily: Baku may Compromise Over Karabakh  07 Aug 1999
 
Baku Azadlyg in Azeri 7 Aug 99 page 1, 4
 
Report by by Farhad Mammadov: "Authorities Inclined To Yield Shusha
and Lachin"; first paragraph is monitor-provided summary
 
[FBIS Translated Text] 

[The Azeris are plannng compromises to resolove the Karabakh problem.
The plan put forward by the Minsk Group "is very close to
independence" and includes the liberation of six districts around
Karabakh but with no concrete mechanism for how this would take place.
In exchange for these six districts Azerbaijan would have to give up
"once and for all" the districts of Shusha and Lacin. Azerbaijan is
also trying to have the term "common state" principle replaced by
another term as it feels it implies that it is surrendering Karabakh.
There are also reports that NKR President Arkadiy Gukasyan will attend
the next meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents to
discuss the issue of how and in what timescale the districts will be
freed.] 

Or how Karabakh has been lost in talks 
[subhead] 

Azerbaijan has agreed to accept, with slight cosmetic changes, the
"common state" principle that was officially turned down. However,
Armenia demands concessions again. After the Kocharyan-Aliyev Geneva
meeting one feels that official Baku is seriously thinking about
concessions. The official propaganda is presenting the idea to public
opinion that it will not be possible to settle the Karabakh conflict
without concessions, and the information we are getting proves that
Azerbaijan is preparing to sign a disgraceful peace agreement. Though
the essence of the "common state" principle backed by all three
cochairmen of the [OSCE] Minsk Group and the plan for the conflict
settlement on this principle have not been unveiled, information
leaking from diplomatic sources allows to put forward certain versions
about some details of this plan. As official Baku confirms, the status
for Nagornyy Karabakh stipulated in the plan submitted by the Minsk
Group is very close to independence. The status allows Karabakh
Armenians to liquidate, anytime they want it, the formal linking with
Azerbaijan and "to define its fate". And Baku will have no right to
make Karabakh Armenians abstain from this decision. The peace plan
stipulates the liberation of six districts (except Lachin) around
Nagornyy Karabakh. But the plan does not give a concrete mechanism of
how these districts will be freed but says that Azerbaijan will not be
able to deploy its army units in the territory liberated from the
Armenian Armed Forces (only police units armed with light arms can be
deployed there). This point was inserted into the Minsk Group's plan
in order to guarantee the "safety of the Nagornyy Karabakh
population". However, this is not the last concession demanded from
Azerbaijan in exchange for the six districts to be freed. In the
beginning Azerbaijan has to give Nagornyy Karabakh the abovementioned
high status. Under the plan, Azerbaijan should once and for all give
up Shusha and Lachin. The formulation is approximately as follows:
"The Nagornyy Karabakh party should ensure conditions for Azeri
refugees to return to Shusha and Lachin regions". This means that
Shusha and Lachin are in fact being given to the jurisdiction of
Nagornyy Karabakh. Therefore, Nagornyy Karabakh will be linked with
Armenia through the Lachin corridor. And no timescale is indicated for
when the Karabakh Armenians will ensure Azeri refugees return to
Shusha and Lachin. According to the information available, official
Baku has submitted to the fate of Shusha and Lachin. Now Baku is
trying to please Armenia in order to have at least simultaneous
discussion of the Nagornyy Karabakh status and the liberation of six
districts. (To recap, previously official Baku was insisting that the
territories were to be freed prior to the determination of the
status.) Because if the status is determined first, Baku will have no
other choice but to "capitulate without talks". The second attempt is
to replace the "common state" principle with another term (the "common
state" term would be the forthright confirmation that Baku is
surrendering Karabakh) and to achieve slight cosmetic changes in the
submitted peace plan. Comments heard in Yerevan after Kocharyan's
Geneva meeting show that Armenia will agree to replace the "common
state" principle by another name. But this does not mean that Armenia
is ready for compromises. One of the slight changes that Azerbaijan
wishes to obtain is to add a point to the plan which could create the
euphoria that Shusha and Lachin, which are actually being given to
Armenians under the plan, will be given to Azerbaijan in the future.
However, the Armenians do not agree to this and, at Russia's
instigation, are demanding additional concessions from Azerbaijan.
Armenia does not also undertake the responsibility for liberating the
six occupied districts and says that Baku has to agree on the issue
with the "Nagornyy Karabakh Republic". There are suppositions that
"NKR President" Arkadiy Gukasyan will join the next Kocharyan-Aliyev
meeting to discuss the issue of how and in what timescale these
districts will be freed. Thus, official Baku actually agrees to accept
the "NKR" as an independent party.

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