RFE/RL Russian Federation Report: Will Tatarstan become Russia's Quebec?

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RFE/RL Russian Federation Report: Will Tatarstan become
Russia's Quebec? 

 
RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
________________________________________________________
RFE/RL Russian Federation Report
Vol. 3, No. 22, 25 July 2001
 
A Survey of Developments in the Regions Outside Moscow Prepared by
the Staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
 
............

END NOTE
 
Is There A Quebec In Russia's Future?
 
By Paul Goble
 
A major Kazan newspaper has urged that Tatarstan's leaders work to
transform that republic into a Russian version of Canada's Quebec
province, a regional unit capable of bargaining with the center and
"of advancing its just demands."

An article in "Zvezda Povolzhya" last week said that in structuring
its Tatarstan's ties with Moscow and the rest of the Russian
Federation, Tatarstan is moving toward a strategy of open bargaining,
in which Kazan is in a position to demand money or concessions for
anything Moscow seeks to have it do.

"If each amendment Moscow wants in our constitution is paid for in
this way," the paper continued, "that is not so bad." Indeed, it may
become the basis for creating a prosperous Tatarstan capable of
standing on its own, "Quebec-like," and thus able to defend itself
within or even against the system.

Along with Chechnya, Tatarstan is the only subject of the Russian
Federation whose relations are not governed by the federation treaty.
Kazan did not sign that document and instead negotiated a
power-sharing arrangement accord. In recent months, Russian officials
have suggested that accord may have to be reworked or even canceled.

Quebec's relationship with the central Canadian government has certain
parallels. Constitutionally, it has exactly the same status as the
other provinces, but the francophone movement there has forced Ottawa
to make special concessions to it, concessions that have often
infuriated other provincial leaders.

According to the Kazan paper, Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev is
"much more of a democrat" than either Boris Nemtsov, the leader of
Russia's Union of Rightist Forces, or Anatolii Chubais, the head of
the Unified Energy Systems of Russia. And his government is much more
interested in defending democracy than are they.

But even that, the paper said, can be the basis for making demands on
Moscow. It argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin can hardly
afford to have the Communists gain in strength in more regions, just
as they are now doing in Nizhnii Novgorod, the former stronghold of
the Union of Rightist Forces.

Consequently, the paper concluded, Tatarstan can achieve quite a lot,
making demands on the center, getting paid for what the center wants
done, and always being in a position to demand even more, just as the
francophone nationalists in Quebec have done over the last two
decades.

What is most striking about this argument is the very different ways
in which it is likely to be viewed by Moscow, by the Tatars, and by
other leaders in the Russian Federation.

Many in Moscow are likely to celebrate this statement as effectively
marking the end of Tatarstan sovereignty. The history of Quebec
secessionism in Canada has been a history of failure. By defining
themselves in terms of Quebec, the Tatars are acknowledging their fate
within Russia.

The Tatars, on the other hand, are likely to view this analysis quite
differently. For them, Quebec has been a success: That province has
continued to attract ever more resources from Ottawa precisely because
Quebec has a credible but not yet successful independence movement.

The Tatars are therefore likely to see the Quebec model as a means to
extract ever more resources from Moscow, thus creating a situation in
which, in the short term, Kazan rather than Moscow can set the agenda
and over the longer haul Tatarstan can gain the independence many
Tatar nationalists seek.

Consequently, the description of Tatarstan as a Russian Quebec is
likely to lead at least some Tatars to increase their demands for
special treatment, secure in the knowledge that Moscow almost
certainly will be willing to continue to try to buy them off, as it
appears to be doing with a special five-year investment program there.

But the most interesting and fateful reactions are likely to be among
the other non-Russian groups now inside the Russian Federation. Putin
has explicitly tried to rein in the regions and republics of his
far-flung country, by reducing the ability of the federation subjects
to act on their own.

The Russian president has repeatedly indicated that he will not
tolerate secession and does not want the regions and republics to
contradict the policies of the center. But in staking out those
positions, Putin has perhaps unwittingly created the basis for a new
ethnic politics in Russia itself.

Because that kind of politics points not to a drive for independence
by Tatarstan but rather to its continuing participation within the
Russian political system, many in both Russia and the West are likely
to see this kind of ethnic politics as a victory for Moscow. But
because Tatarstan's politics, like those of Quebec, are based on the
mobilization of ethnic sentiments, Moscow, like Ottawa, may find this
situation difficult to sustain.

If the Russian government continues to try to buy off one republic,
Moscow is likely to find that other republics and regions will make
new demands, seeing the use of populistic nationalism as the key to
more resources.

But if Moscow does not provide sufficient funds to Tatarstan or the
others, it may face, much as the central Canadian government still
does, the risk that Tatarstan or another republic could become a
Russian Quebec, the kind of continuing challenge that Moscow may find
it difficult to meet.
 
***********************************************
Copyright (c) 2001. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
 
"RFE/RL Russian Federation Report" is prepared by Julie A. Corwin
(JAC) on the basis of a variety of sources, including reporting by
"RFE/RL Newsline" and RFE/RL's broadcast services. Regular
contributors are Liz Fuller (LF), and Paul Goble (PG). It is
distributed every Wednesday.
 
Direct comments to Julie A. Corwin at [email protected]. For
information on subscriptions or reprints, see:
http://www.rferl.org/reprints/content.asp 
Back issues are online at http://www.rferl.org/russianreport/
 
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