Ethnic Russians leaving Azerbaijan

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Subject: Ethnic Russians leaving Azerbaijan

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Ethnic Russians leaving Azerbaijan


Moscow News
April 18, 2001

ETHNIC RUSSIANS LEAVING AZERBAIJAN
Vladimir Mishin

According to a 1989 census, there were 392,300 ethnic Russians living
in Azerbaijan, or 5.3 percent of the republic's population. The latest
census shows that over the past 10 years the number of Russians in
Azerbaijan has fallen to 141,700 (a 2.8 times reduction), or 1.8
percent of the population

The Russian exodus from Azerbaijan peaked in the 1990-1995 period -
that is to say, in official Baku terminology, a "period of
politico-economic instability in the republic." On the other hand,
restored stability following power centralization and its
concentration in the hands of President Geidar Aliyev as well as
consistent improvement of macroeconomic indicators brought the
"migration processes in Azerbaijan in line with the standards
characteristic of civilized states."

In other words, by early 1996, the exodus of ethnic Russians from
Azerbaijan had effectively stopped since life in the republic was
largely back to normal. The president enforced constitutional order in
the country, and foreign investment flowed into the national economy,
primarily into the oil sector, while imports from offshore zones, even
if of dubious quality, saturated the consumer market.

True, there is also an unofficial view of migration processes in
Azerbaijan: Those who could go, went; those who could not, had to
stay. Although it is clearly the present rather than the past that
determines the status of the 140,000 or so Russians still living in
Azerbaijan.

Under Azerbaijan's Constitution - and President Aliyev has repeatedly
stressed this - all citizens in the republic have equal rights and
obligations. On the one hand, this means that the rights of ethnic
minorities to work, education, medical care, pension, military
service, etc., are not in any way infringed. On the other, it is
increasingly obvious that there are no special state programs to
support ethnic minorities in the republic.

In practical terms, this means that ethnic Russians in Azerbaijan have
no problem receiving a secondary or higher education in their native
language, just as they have no problem getting information from the
Russian-language mass media. Thus, mainstream Russian TV channel
programming is broadcast in Azerbaijan almost in full; there are about
20 local newspapers and magazines in Russian while any periodical
published in Moscow is available through subscription.

Ethnic Russians are represented in Azerbaijan's milli mejlis - two
deputies 
in the 125-seat one-house parliament, even though these deputies, for 
obvious reasons, have little impact on the law-making process in 
Azerbaijan. There are six Baku-Caspian parishes of the Russian
Orthodox 
Church in Azerbaijan where every practicing Christian can get support
from their priest, receive baptism, have a church wedding, and so
forth.

So, if an ethnic Russian living in Azerbaijan has a stable income,
there is no reason to leave the republic. Admittedly, things are very
different when there is no income - that is, if a Russian has lost
employment. It is extremely difficult to get a new job. First, because
the number of unemployed, according to the Confederation of Trade
Unions of Azerbaijan, has approached 1 million. Second, cronyism in
the republic is far more widespread than, say, in Russia or the United
States. In practice this means that a manager will first of all hire
his close or distant relations or people (necessary or unnecessary as
the case may be) representing other clans who could be expected to
return the favor. Indigenous families here are typically very large,
and clannish ties, needless to say, are diverse and ramified. By
contrast, ethnic Russians do not have such extensive family links. It
is, therefore, hardly surprising that they are the first to be sacked
in Azerbaijan and the last to be employed.

It is noteworthy that there is not a single ethnic Russian holding the
position of department chief in the Presidential Staff or the Cabinet
of Ministers. Likewise nearly all state company managers represent the
indigenous nationality. A few Russians heading private companies are
rather an exception to the general rule.

Furthermore, even if an ethnic Russian in Azerbaijan does have a job,
this does not always mean that he has no financial problems. Thus, in
2000 the average monthly wage in the republic was a mere 205,700 manat
(approximately $ 45) as compared to 2,400 rubles (or $ 85) in Russia.
As for per capita income, it is six times as high in Russia as in
Azerbaijan ($ 3,500 and $ 600, respectively).

It will be appropriate in this context to recall that economic reasons
forced more than 1 million Azerbaijanis to leave their country and
seek employment in Russia. Obviously, this is the only option open to
ethnic Russians who find themselves out of work in Azerbaijan: They
have no chance of getting a new one other than in Russia.

As for those young Russians who have just graduated from high school
or university in Azerbaijan, they realize only too well that what is
in store for most of them is either unemployment or second-class
status. So, many have to leave - mainly for Russia, closer to their
relatives.

Unlike the exodus of Russians in 1990-1995, this actually fits the
definition of "migration processes characteristic of civilized
states." These processes, however, are affected by a number of factors
that are not directly related to the economic situation in the
country.

Factor One: possible aggravation (including a civil war) of the
internal political situation in Azerbaijan, resulting from the power
struggle. (It is indicative in this context that former Prosecutor
General Makhir Javadov, who is now in Iran - the elder brother of
Rovshan Javadov, commander of the rebellious Azeri OPON
special-purpose police detachment, who was killed in 1995 in Baku when
government forces suppressed a military coup - has often said that he
and his followers intend to seize power in the republic. These are of
course just words but who can tell how it can turn out in the future).

Factor Two: a rise in anti-Russian sentiments during a period of
possible political instability, which is closely related to Factor
One. In any event, there is a strong belief in Azerbaijan that the war
in Nagorny Karabakh was lost because Russia had been helping Armenia
with weapons and even troops. In other words, the loss of Karabakh is
blamed not so much on the Armenians themselves as on the Russians.

A combination of these two factors could produce a result similar to
that brought about by migration in the first half of the 1990s. But
even without that, the number of ethnic Russians in Azerbaijan will
continue to decline steadily. After all, young people link their
future with Russia while elderly people sooner or later depart this
life all the same. Meanwhile, middle-aged Russians have to choose
between following their children who have settled in Russia or sharing
the fate of the older generation in Azerbaijan (the average pension is
72,000 manat, or $ 15, a month).

As a result of this evolution, in 10 to 20 years, whatever ethnic
Russians will be left in Azerbaijan may be either at the Russian
Embassy in Baku or in mixed Russian-Azeri families.


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