V.Guluzade on Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

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Subject: V.Guluzade on Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

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V.Guluzade on Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict


Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

"Zerkalo" (in Russian)
26 Dec 98 pp 10, 11

by Vafa Guluzade, State Foreign Policy Advisor in Azerbaijan

Motives, Consequences and Prospects 

Ten years have already passed since the start, to be more exact, the
resumption of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in 1988 when Armenian
nationalists started a new wave of the bloody campaign to divide
Azerbaijan. I would like to sum up the events, to think about the
causes of the conflict, to determine where we are now and what we can
expect in the future.  

[passage omitted: the establishment of Nagorno-Karabakh as an
autonomous district during the Soviet period was a crude violation of
the law as the Armenians already had their own republic]

We have always said that we are victims of Armenian aggression, and we
rarely associate this with the fact that Armenia is supported by
Russia, which is at the same time a mediator and cochairman of the
OSCE Minsk Group, whose main task is to establish peace between these
two neighboring countries.  

[passage omitted: Guluzade talks about the history of the conflict] 

In spite of the collapse of the USSR and the deep political and
economic crisis in Russia, its old priorities and strategy have not
changed at all. The clearest proof of this is Russia's reliance on
Armenia, on military union with it, and on the intensive
militarization of this tiny Caucasus republic with a population of
three million. Because Azerbaijan and Bulgaria have been freed from
the Russian military presence and Georgia is not reliable, Armenia has
become the only bridgehead.

Independent experts estimate that since 1994 ultramodern equipment has
been delivered to Armenia worth approximately $2 billion.  Since the
scandal, when in early 1997 the Russian Duma heard about the supply of
arms worth $1 billion dollars to Armenia, new missile complexes
capable of carrying nuclear warheads, zenith missile complexes,
including S-300 missiles, five MiG-29 fighter planes worth $15 million
each, and many other weapons have been supplied there.  Probably, this
is what allows General Lebed and some others to affirm that Armenia
possesses the most modern and capable army in [that part of] Europe.

Why does Russia need Armenia to have such a powerful army? I am
inclined to think that the main goal of this is not so much Azerbaijan
but Turkey. The blow that was struck against Azerbaijan, I mean the
occupation of 20 percent of our territory, is a blow against Turkey,
too, because the strengthening of Azerbaijan is the strengthening of
Turkey as well and vice versa. They understand this very well in
Russia and in Armenia, but Turkey underestimates this. I know full
well that Russia and Armenia regard us as Turks, not Azeris.  The
world community also considers us identical peoples.  Therefore,
aggression against Azerbaijan also damages the image of the Turkish
state, which at the moment cannot render assistance to its younger
partner in the same way that Russia does to Armenia, because of
Turkey's dependence on the political, military, and strategic
priorities of the United States and NATO.

Therefore, when we say that the conflict, into which we have been
drawn, is "Armenian-Azerbaijani," we mislead both ourselves and
others.

In reality this is the latest action in the old Russian-Turkish
confrontation, in which Armenia is only an executor of its master, but
Azerbaijan is a little obstacle on this path to the main goal. It is
known that even at the beginning of the century during the First World
War, Russia used the Armenians against Turkey. History, apparently, is
repeating itself. However, this time everything is more complicated.
Suppose a conflict flared up between Armenia, which has the most
powerful army in Europe (if Gen. Lebed is to be believed) and Turkey,
then Turkey might be deprived of NATO support thanks to the actions of
the Armenian diaspora in the US Congress or in European structures and
also the actions of Russia in the UN Security Council, which will
assess this conflict not as Russian-Turkish but local
Armenian-Turkish.  Having committed aggression, Armenia, by the joint
efforts of the Armenian diaspora in these countries, will be presented
to world public opinion as a victim of Turkish genocide and forced to
attack in order to prevent an imaginary Turkish aggression.  Turkey's
allies may take the position of a detached observer.

Suppose the "strongest army in Europe" occupies part of Turkey's
territory, then after the intervention of the UN, OSCE, the
superpowers of the United States, Russia, France, and England a
cease-fire is established.

Will not Turkey turn out to be in the same position as Azerbaijan
after the occupation of its primordial territories, when everyone
knows that Armenia has committed an armed aggression, but no one has
condemned it or done anything about it? I wonder what Turkey would do,
if it alone were not able to confront Russia's power, which is behind
Armenia.

Incidentally, after the collapse of the USSR, Armenia tried to
convince the United States that they do not need Turkey any more,
Russia is already not threatening America, and the policy towards
Turkey should be changed.

Of course, all the above could be thought of as fantasy if Russia were
not increasing military cooperation with Armenia (it is not clear why
this should be; surely Armenia does not need defending from
Azerbaijan), with Iran (despite the displeasure of the United States,
which threatens to stop the much desired credits), with Greece (a NATO
member), and attempting to base S-300 missiles on Cyprus. Besides, all
the aforementioned countries - Armenia, Iran, and Greece - enjoy
Russia's sympathy but do not suffer from any excess of sympathy for
Turkey. The Russian empire, unlike Genghis Khan, the ancient Romans,
or the Third Reich prefers unhurried, creeping expansion to lightning
raids and blitzkriegs. This is how they mastered the north, subjugated
the Caucasus, conquered Central Asia, etc. A bridgehead in the
Transcaucasus for the "dash to the east" (Vladimir Zhirinovskiy) was
also done gradually, without hurrying. At first, the empire granted
the Armenians land in the Caucasus, then helped to resettle Armenians
from Turkey, Iran, and Arabic countries and at the same time it forced
the Turks out and resettled them outside Armenia. This process started
during the Soviet period.  Armenia was cleansed of the Turks, who
started to be called Azerbaijanis during the Soviet period.  This
process is continuing today, too, with the de facto annexation of
Azerbaijani territory to Armenia.

What happened after the collapse of the USSR is well-known. Azerbaijan
rushed to freedom, released from the Russian military presence, which
was an event of great historic significance for us. It did not take
long for a response to come. Armenia, which was supported and armed by
Russia, occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory.  This in fact
restored the Russian military presence on our territory: 130 km of the
Azerbaijani-Iranian border was put under Russia's control and we were
punished for our refusal to have Russian border guards protecting our
frontiers. Another important achievement of the aggression was the
rupture of land links between Azerbaijan and Turkey via the
Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic by occupying the Megri-Nakhichevan
section of the railway and blockading Nakhichevan. I realized in
spring 1993 after the occupation of Azerbaijan's Kelbadzhar District
how important it is for Russia to restore its military presence in
Azerbaijan.

This action by the Armenian armed forces was impudent, open aggression
and I was astonished at how Armenia could dare to take such a step, to
challenge the whole world. Later on, during negotiations within the
OSCE Minsk Group in the presence of its former chairman, Jan Eliasson,
when asked by me the Armenians openly admitted that in reality they
had had no idea of seizing Azerbaijani territory except
Nagorno-Karabakh, to which they indeed lay claim. "The idea of
creating a so-called 'security zone' around Nagorno-Karabakh came from
the Russians, with whose assistance the occupation of Azerbaijani
territories was carried out," my collocutor admitted. "We agreed to
this, because our interests coincided with the Russians' proposals,"
he underlined. (I could say who told me this; he occupies a senior
post at the moment, but I do not think that there is a need).

After the occupation of Kelbadzhar I received an invitation in April
1993 from the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, at that time Mr.
Adamishin, to come to Moscow to meet them.  During the talks he
suggested that I convince the Azerbaijani leadership to agree to the
introduction of forces into Kelbadzhar "if only one battalion of
Russian troops" and promised to withdraw Armenian armed forces from
the district. When I asked what guarantees he gave or whether the
Russians would use force if the Armenians refused to leave Kelbadzhar,
Mr. Adamishin could not give an intelligible answer. I understood that
his aim was not the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces but the
introduction of Russian troops and I replied that no one in Azerbaijan
would agree to this proposal.

The Azerbaijani ambassador in Moscow, Hikmet Hajizade, took part in
this conversation. Following Kelbadzhar, one after another other
districts of Azerbaijan were occupied, making up 20 percent of our
territory and creating approximately one million refugees. All this as
well as the artificial creation of the "Talysh and Lezgin problems" by
well-known forces put Azerbaijan into a catastrophic position that
threatened to kill the state, which was the true aim of the aggressor
and his accomplices.

All this shows convincingly that Armenia would never have dared to
undertake such large-scale aggression on its own. This aggression
brought Armenia neither political nor economic dividends. On the
contrary it caused Armenia itself huge damage and put it in a
situation which it cannot find any way out of.  

[passage omitted: Guluzade says the aggression was stopped and the
state saved thanks to world class politician Heydar Aliyev; he recalls
the history of the cease-fire agreement; says Azerbaijan has achieved
a great deal since then]

Analysis of all the factors leads to the view that resolution of the
issue of war and peace is not in the hands of either Azerbaijani or
Armenian politicians at the moment. I am sure that even if we allow
the nonsensical idea that we recognize the independence of
Nagorno-Karabakh and give it to the Armenians, this will not lead to
the liberation of our occupied territories or to the establishment of
a reliable peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Trying to protect
themselves from this hypothesis, the agents of the Russian military
industrial complex will promote a hardening in the position of
Armenia, inspire in Armenia claims to Kelbadzhar and other districts.
Moreover, well-known KGB agent Zori Balayan is already fighting for
Nakhichevan to be united with Armenia and and has created a new
movement, the Nakhichevan brothers. The spirit of the demon of war,
captured in a glass vessel, as in the fairy tale of Immortal Kashchey
or Melik Mamede is not in Armenia or Azerbaijan but in Russia, the
path to it crosses overseas countries, it is long and difficult,
although I have no doubt at all that this path will be travelled, the
vessel will in the end be broken and the demon of war will stop
bringing unhappiness to the peoples of our region and will breathe its
last stinking breath.

A few words about Armenia.  Eyewitnesses say that it is in deep and
hopeless stagnation. There are no signs at all of economic growth;
corruption reigns. Spitak is still in ruins, although it is already 10
years since the earthquake. I wonder where the $1.5 million have gone
that were sent over these years to meet the needs of Spitak, what are
the $200 million sent every year by the Armenian diaspora spent on and
the $100 million a year of American aid, can they really have only
been spent on acquiring Russian weapons and maintaining Russian bases?
I am not glad about the poor situation of the Armenian people for
they, like us, are victims of the Russian national idea, perhaps
without realizing it. At any rate, they are not like victors as they
are not fighting for their interests. Their "victory" apart from being
a misfortune for themselves has given them nothing. If they dream of
new victories, then when they have achieved them with the help of
their "uncle" they will be in an even more lamentable condition. As
for us, realizing what danger we are in, we are firmly and patiently
holding our course to a peaceful settlement of the conflict as we
believe that this is the only correct way. We are using to this end
all political factors, at the same time reinforcing our statehood and
army.  Time will show the rest.

P.S. I would like to say in conclusion that I do not harbor any
anti-Russian feelings. 

[passage omitted: Guluzade says he has many Russian friends from his
days as a student and Foreign Ministry employee in Moscow and that he
feels only love for the Russian people]

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